Box Office Report: As 'Suicide' Drops Hard, 'Sausage' & 'Dragon&#0…

Here’s your estimated 3-day box office returns (new releases bolded):

1. Suicide Squad – $43.7 million ($222.8 million total)

2. Sausage Party – $33.6 million ($33.6 million total)

3. Pete’s Dragon – $21.5 million ($21.5 million total)

4. Jason Bourne – $13.6 million ($126.7 million total)

5. Bad Moms – $11.4 million ($71.4 million total)

6. The Secret Life of Pets – $8.8 million ($335.9 million total)

7. Star Trek Beyond – $6.8 million ($139.6 million total)

8. Florence Foster Jenkins – $6.5 million ($6.5 million total)

9. Nine Lives – $3.5 million ($13.5 million total)

10. Lights Out – $3.2 million ($61.1 million total)

The Big Stories

As reports came in during the week that Suicide Squad was continuing to break weekday records this month after the biggest opening August has ever seen, there should have been less awe and more awful. That was what was suggested of the DC film’s future after the weekend numbers told a much larger story than a frontloaded Friday. While this weekend backs up the foretold prophecy on David Ayer’s maligned and mangled effort, it has also delivered three of the seven best reviewed films of the summer and it is time for audiences to embrace something this season has solely been lacking: quality.

Something For Kids Of All Ages

Before breaking down the decline of Suicide Squad, we should celebrate what this summer has brought us before putting one of the worst movie seasons ever behind us. Seth Rogen’s Neighbors 2, while decently reviewed at Rotten Tomatoes with a 63%, nevertheless did 63.2% less at the box office than the original film did. Not a huge loser for Universal but still a disappointment. Move over to Sony, which infamously pulled The Interview from theaters after empty threats from North Korea and then shared in the disappointment with low returns on The Night Before. Now they are being rewarded with not just their best-reviewed film of 2016 (82% at RT) but perhaps even their most profitable.

Rogen and Evan Goldberg’s Sausage Party posted a solid $33 million over the weekend. That is actually on the low-end of films that have opened to between $3-4 million in its Thursday previews over the past five years (third lowest to Warcraft and The Purge: Election Year). But far superior to some of the lowball projections that had it only around $15 million. Though word-of-mouth appears to be strong, the film received only a “B” at Cinemascore. But since 1999 there have actually been more grades of “B” in the month of August than any other from the survey company. These include hits like Tropic Thunder, Talladega Nights and M. Night Shyamalan’s Signs, so do not put too much stock into that letter.

The month of August tends to have one of the stronger lineups of multiples as audiences continue to discover the cream of the crop amidst the studio dumping ground between mid-August and Labor Day. This is evidenced by even the “B” Cinemascores with a 75% Rotten Tomatoes score or higher in August posting an average multiple of 3.89. That would push Sausage Party to over $130 million, which on just a $19 million budget will give the studio a strong profit. Even if the multiple is the average for “B” films this month opening to over $25 million (3.17), the “R”-rated animated comedy would still pull in $106 million, passing This is the End. Between this, The Angry Birds Movie and the Hotel Transylvania films, maybe Sony should put further concentration into their animated department.

A New Family Classic?

It would be wrong to judge Pete’s Dragon by its numbers as this is certain to be a film that will live on for generations to come. A stand-alone family experience not paving the way to become a franchise or being yukked it up with loud humor, David Lowery’s remake is a true wonder in a summer that has been awash in sequels (Finding Dory), familiarity (The Secret Life of Pets) and even disappointment (The BFG). Disney has had one heck of a year with not just Dory but also Zootopia and The Jungle Book leading the way. Sure, The BFG was a disappointment at the box office but it is a film that may still slowly find an audience over time. But Pete’s Dragon may just be the best of the bunch even if its starting numbers are paltry by comparison.

Though it makes for a beautiful end-of-summer experience, the month of August has not exactly been your best bet to release films aimed at families. Sure there was Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles opening to $65 million two years ago and young lads have had Guardians of the Galaxy (both PG-13 films) but the next closest thing to a family film down the release schedule were The Princess Diaries films. On the other hand, Pete’s Dragon start is right in line with other “PG”-rated Disney titles released in August. Not only did the animated Planes open to $22.23 million back in 2013 but their 2003 remake of Freaky Friday opened to $22.20 million. Both of those films received an “A-” from Cinemascore. Pete’s Dragon received a solid “A” (plus an 86% at Rotten Tomatoes) and has started with $21.5 million on a $65 million budget. (The BFG was $140 million. Alice Through the Looking Glass was $170.)

Dragon is the 17th film since 1999 to receive an “A” in August, a list that includes everything from Guardians to The Princess Diaries, sequels (The Bourne Ultimatum, Rush Hour 2), films for foodies (Julie & Julia, The Hundred-Foot Journey), musical legends (Straight Outta Compton, Get On Up), concert films from One Direction and Glee and at least one genuine family classic (The Iron Giant).

Freaky Friday went on to post an impressive late summer multiple of 4.96 to get over $110 million while Robert Rodriguez’s PG-rated Spy Kids 2 managed a 5.13 after a $16.7 million start. Even Disney’s The Odd Life of Timothy Green posted a 4.79 multiple after just a $10.8 million start on Aug. 15, 2012. Fox’s Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters had a 4.76. Both Princess Diaries films and Planes were both also over 4 so it would be wrong to write off Pete’s Dragon‘s numbers so quickly. Even with the already-lauded Kubo and the Two Strings opening next weekend, Lowery’s film is likely to hang on until well in September as the family market will only be pointing to these two films until Warner Bros.’ Storks opens on the 23rd. Though if you see a parent taking their child to Nine Lives (which made another $3.5 million) at any point until that 9%-rated film closes, you must direct them to Pete’s Dragon.

And now, Harry Caray. Or Something Like That

Burying the lede on Suicide Squad is likely precisely what WB and DC would like everyone to do. Sure they can boast a second weekend at #1, but there is a real chance that any solid hold from its challengers can steal the top spot in weekend three. The numbers do not lie though and its future may have been predicted as early as last Saturday. For you see, Suicide Squad dropped 40.55% from its Friday gross to its Saturday. That is the fourth worst drop for a film to start with over $100 million in its first weekend. Here is the complete top ten for comparison:

The Twilight Saga: New Moon (-41.83%), The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 (-41.77%), The Dark Knight Rises (-40.69%), Suicide Squad (-40.55%), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (-38.03%), Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (-37.89%), Avengers: Age of Ultron (-33.04%), Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (-32.86%), Furious 7 (-30.83%), The Dark Knight (-29.06%)

The tragic events in Aurora, Colorado can not be entirely dismissed when considering the drop in attendance for The Dark Knight Rises back in 2012, especially as the film still managed a solid 2.78 multiple and grossed over $448 million. The same cannot be said for other films at the top of that list. But here is another list that casts a further shadow over Suicide Squad. These numbers reflect the difference in the opening weekend’s Friday gross vs. the combined Saturday & Sunday. For an example, consider Iron Man 2 which started with $51.2 million on Friday, slid to $45.7 million on Saturday and then $31.1 million on Sunday. That means its combined gross on days two and three was 50.05% higher than what it did on Friday. Now look at the worst Saturday/Sunday numbers vs. Friday for films to open over $100 million.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (-14.22%), The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 (-7.21%), The Twilight Saga: New Moon (-3.53%), The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 (-1.78%), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (2.67%), Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (3.54%), Suicide Squad (6.00%), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (8.17%), The Dark Knight Rises (12.38%), Furious 7 (18.35%)

That’s right. Just a 6% increase on Saturday and Sunday combined for Suicide Squad last weekend. Just ahead of DC’s other big 2016 dropper, BvS. Even The Force Awakens which had the biggest Friday in box office history, managed an 8% increase. Harry Potter 8.2 had the highest Friday opening ever up to that point which helps explain its big drop. In other words, the frontloaded DC fans are pretty much in line with the same crowd of The Twilight Saga. Joking aside, five of the six films with lower drops than Suicide Squad on that list fell more than 69% in their second weekend. Even if it were to drop the average of those six films (-68.4%) it would fall to $42.1 million. And where did Suicide Squad drop this weekend? 67.3% for $43.7 million, which probably goes up and comes down further Monday, respectively.

Despite being the 27th highest-grossing film after 10 days at the box office, at $222 million Suicide Squad is now over $5 million off the pace of the last Twilight film which finished its run with $292 million. In fact its more in line with Breaking Dawn Part 1 which finished with $281 million. Watch next weekend to see if it drops to around $16-17 million which would put right on par with both Breaking Dawn‘s and Harry Potter 8.1, none of which hit the $300 million mark. Despite the film being over $465 million worldwide, it is only looking at around another $55-70 million in the U.S. leaving the international crowd to fill in that gap to $750 million that the film reportedly needs to break even. Sorry, DC, but it is probably not going to happen.

Tales of the Top Ten

Aside from Suicide Squad, this week was the beginning of what should be some pretty decent holds for the rest of the month. The best of the bunch was STX’s Bad Moms which dropped just 18% as it continues to make a play for $100 million. It is ahead of the pace of both Collateral ($101 million) and even The Princess Diaries ($108 million) at this point. With adult women not rushing out to Florence Foster Jenkins this weekend ($6.1 million in just 1,528 theaters but also an 88% at RT), Bad Moms has a chance to Julie & Julia its way through the month to hit the magic number for the $20 million budgeted film.

Even with a new family film (and new animated title) this weekend, Universal’s The Secret Life of Pets had the next best drop of the lot with just 24%. It has now surpassed Minions and is still eyeing the $368 million of Despicable Me 2, of which it is less than $2 million off its total pace. However, with a sixth weekend that was $3.5 million higher than Illumination’s champion to date, that number is in its sights. Worldwide the film has surpassed $592 million.

The 32% drop for Star Trek Beyond is about the only piece of good news for the Paramount franchise. It is now at $139.6 million and actually very close to where The Bourne Supremacy was back in 2004 (an $8.6 million fourth weekend and $139.6 million to date.) That film finished its run with $176 million which would still be $52 million less than Star Trek Into Darkness‘ gross. Paramount will shift focus to Ben-Hur next weekend and with both Kubo and War Dogs also opening, Star Trek Beyond will likely be no higher than 10th on the list and could even fall off if the studio’s Florence Foster Jenkins holds well. Any way you spin it, this $185 million production is looking like the biggest loser in the franchise’s 50-year history.

Rounding out the list, Universal’s Jason Bourne is also right in line with…wait for it…The Bourne Supremacy. The first go-round for Damon and director Paul Greengrass made $14.3 million in its third weekend and had $124.6 million in the bank. Go-round number three did $13.6 million in its third weekend and has $126.7 million total. The film is over $246 million worldwide and is looking like it should get into the black for the studio. Already well into the black is Warner Bros.’ Lights Out which passed $60 million in the U.S. and is headed over $100 million internationally. Not bad on a budget under $5 million.

– Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on WGN Radio with Nick Digilio as well as on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast.

[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]

Source link