Box Office Report: Denzel and Pratt are 'Magnificent,' But 'Storks' Not So …

Here’s your estimated 3-day box office returns (new releases bolded):

1. The Magnificent Seven – $35.0 million ($35.0 million total)

2. Storks – $21.8 million ($21.8 million total)

3. Sully – $13.8 million ($92.3 million total)

4. Bridget Jones’s Baby – $4.5 million ($16.4 million total)

5. Snowden – $4.1 million ($15.1 million total)

6. Blair Witch – $3.9 million ($16.1 million total)

7. Don’t Breathe – $3.8 million ($81.1 million total)

8. Suicide Squad – $3.1 million ($318.1 million total)

9. When the Bough Breaks – $2.5 million ($26.6 million total)

10. Kubo and the Two Strings – $1.1 million ($45.9 million total)

The Big Stories

Summer was for the kids, but the autumn is most decidedly for the adults. At least, so far. For the third straight week, a film aimed at older audiences has ruled the box office handily while a challenger for the younger vote has come up well short. This may change next weekend when Tim Burton’s Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children opens, but look at what we have in coming weeks: Deepwater Horizon, The Girl on the Train, The Accountant, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back and Inferno. And then Doctor Strange opens. So enjoy it while you can. Sure, there are some sequels and remakes in the batch, but this is your chance to cast your vote so studios know they shouldn’t ignore anyone over the age of 25. 

No Deadly Sins Here

The first time Antoine Fuqua teamed up with Denzel Washington, the actor won his second Oscar for Training Day, which grossed over $76 million in October of 2001. The second time was 2014’s The Equalizer, which became the fourth highest September opening ever with $34.1 million and ended with $101.5 million, a multiple of 2.97. Since then both Sully and Hotel Transylvania 2 knocked it back on the charts a bit, but then in rides The Magnificent Seven with $35.3 million to grab the #5 slot in September. Of the now top 10 openers this month, only one of them (Insidious: Chapter 2) received less than an “A-“ Cinemascore. It received a “B+”, Sully got a straight “A” and Magnificent joined the party with another “A-.”

But there is something else to consider with that list.

With the exception of Sully & the two Fuqua/Washington pairings, all the top September openings have been films courting a younger audience. From families (Two Hotel Transylvanias and a Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs each) to young adults (The Maze Runner), action fans (Rush Hour) and whoever Sweet Home Alabama appealed to.

Of that list, the films aimed at adults were the only ones not to manage a 3x multiple. Equalizer’s 2.97 was actually the highest film this month since 1999 to not reach three times its opening weekend, but Insidious: Chapter 2 and its 2.07 was certainly on the lower side. Clint Eastwood’s Sully is looking to buck that trend easily as it dropped only 36% in its third weekend and has risen its total to over $92 million. It will reach $105 million with ease next weekend. Can The Magnificent Seven reach the $106 million it needs to join the 3x club?

Working in its favor is the fact that only two films since ’99 with an “A-“ Cinemascore to open to $35 million have failed to reached $100 million (Red Dragon, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows) and only three (Pacific Rim, The Conjuring 2 and Hop) failed to reach $111. With the exception of Ghostbusters this summer, Sony has had a pretty successful run on the books going back to Miracles from Heaven and continuing with Money Monster, The Angry Birds Movie, The Shallows, Sausage Party and Don’t Breathe. The Magnificent Seven hopes to join that list, though with a $90 million budget, it is going to take a match from the international audience to put the film into profit.

Let Me Not Tell You Where Babies Come From

So answer this question: Did the OK opening of Storks have to do with a recent family overload at the box office or the fact that parents did not want to have the conversation with their kids as to the titular character’s mythological purpose? Honest question is it not after WB’s Storks started with just $21.8 million? That is approximately what Ice Age: Collision Course opened to this summer leaving Storks as now the 89^th best animated opening ever according to Box Office Mojo. Certainly that is not Ratchet & Clank or The Wild Life numbers, but this is Hotel Transylvania and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs country. Even Sony’s Open Season opened to $23.6 million back in 2006.

It’s not like there’s much in the way of competition out there for the family dollar. Kubo and the Two Strings is spending its last week in the top ten with just over a million bucks. Unless this is a sign that parents are holding back their wallets to take kids to the “PG-13” Miss Peregrine next week (or are just broke from this summer) what else could the explanation be? The good news for Storks is that other than the Burton film, there will not be much to challenge it until Trolls opens on Nov. 4. (Anyone banking on Lionsgate’s Middle School being a factor?)

The average multiple in September since 1999 for an “A-“ film like Storks opening on over 3000 screens is 3.47. That would put it around $74 million, just passing its $70 million budget leaving it to international audiences to fill in the additional $100 million it will need to break even.

Tales of the Top Ten

Not a whole lot else to tell beyond the winners this week. Suicide Squad continues to hang tight, now with over $318 million in the U.S. and over $724 million worldwide. Still not Deadpool money, but a hit nevertheless.

Also a solid hit on the list is Sony’s Don’t Breathe, which is now the third highest grossing film of their Screen Gems division in the U.S. behind just The Vow and Think Like a Man. Much better than When the Bough Breaks which is hovering around breaking even, but could put a temporary nail into September’s Lifetime Movie of the Month for African-Americans.

Less successful films on the list include Bridget Jones’s Baby, at least in the U.S. With over four times the money overseas as it has made here ($67.1 million), this will turn a profit for Universal and keep their streak going. It dropped about the same stateside as Open Road’s Snowden but as Oliver Stone’s film is headed probably no higher than $20 million (less than W.’s gross), that $40 million budget looms. Same goes for Kubo and the Two Strings’ $60 million pricetag with just over $58 million worldwide for one of the best-reviewed films of the year.

All that being said the biggest disappointment for any studio on the list has to be Lionsgate’s Blair Witch. The studio was certainly hoping for something more in the vicinity of Don’t Breathe numbers. Do not misunderstand as this release is in no way a disaster by itself. It has grossed over $21 million worldwide on just a $5 million budget, but that is hardly the kind of headline grabber for a company that had to give up on one of their franchises three-quarters of the way through and is relying on a lot of sequels (John Wick 2, Saw 8), a by-gone era (Power Rangers, My Little Pony) and Mark Wahlberg (Deepwater Horizon, Patriots Day) to save their bottom line.

On the bright side, they do have the favorite to win Best Picture this year in La La Land and as Tom Hanks said about the film at Telluride “if the audience doesn’t go and embrace something as wonderful as this then we are all doomed.”

– Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on WGN Radio with Nick Digilio as well as on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast.

[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]

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