Can Late-Arriving Oscar Contenders Still Break Through

With the final wave of Oscar contenders opening in coming weeks forward of the Academy’s new Feb. 28 eligibility deadline, studios are contending with particular challenges in constructing momentum since conventional theatrical releases are nonetheless principally sidelined because of the pandemic.

This weekend, Warner Bros.’ “Judas and the Black Messiah” and A24’s “Minari” would be the first of a sequence of Oscar hopefuls attempting to realize mainstream buzz forward — with extra to return by way of the top of the month. But constructing on field workplace efficiency as studios have carried out up to now simply isn’t an choice in 2021 — neither is it actually doable to capitalize on awards consideration to spice up ticket gross sales when most U.S. theaters stay shut down.

“The mainstream Oscar buzz isn’t built in at the time of release this time around,” one indie distributor mentioned. “Usually by this point, we know how much of a hit an Oscar nominee has been, and it’s just a matter of seeing how much farther it can be pushed. We’re not really going to know whether some of these films were a win for their studios until the early summer just because of how the whole calendar has been shaken up.”

George MacKay as Schofield in “1917,” from Oscar-winning filmmaker Sam Mendes. (Universal; Getty Images)

It was once that awards contenders opening late within the awards calendar would begin with a New York/Los Angeles qualifying launch in late December earlier than going broad in mid-January to benefit from Golden Globe wins and/or the mid-January Oscar nominations that may attract curious moviegoers. Universal’s “1917,” which received the highest prize on the Globes final yr previous to its broad launch, was in a position to capitalize on this technique with a $159.2 million home field workplace whole.

But that method isn’t doable in 2021. With Oscar nominations not being introduced till March 15, the probably metric of success for these movies might be how a lot income they achieve in PVOD gross sales and streamer subscriptions as a substitute of field workplace gross sales; and whereas the monetary outlook for many movies could be mapped out after a pair weeks in theaters, these movies will look to play the lengthy recreation. The greatest case state of affairs will probably be a gradual improve of viewers curiosity at drive-ins and at residence, constructing consideration amongst Oscar voters that can hopefully result in a Best Picture Oscar nomination in mid-March, which, in flip, will drive much more viewers curiosity.

“Judas and the Black Messiah,” as a part of Warner Bros.’ year-long technique, might be out there at no additional cost on HBO Max on the identical time it releases theatrically this Friday. A24 will maintain digital screenings of “Minari” over the subsequent two weeks earlier than releasing the movie as a premium video on-demand title on Feb. 26.

Other upcoming contenders are planning comparable methods. Searchlight’s “Nomadland,” lengthy thought of to be the Oscar entrance runner due to its domination of critics awards to this point, might be launched day-and-date in theaters and on Hulu on Feb. 19, whereas Paramount’s “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” will debut solely on Hulu on February 26. The movie with a launch technique closest to a standard one for an awards contender is Sony Pictures Classics’ “The Father,” which might be launched on February 26 at drive-ins in New York and Los Angeles earlier than increasing nationwide over the approaching weeks forward of a PVOD launch on March 26.uzz they construct over the subsequent three to 4 weeks may go a good distance in figuring out their Oscar fortunes.

At least for “Nomadland,” constructing Oscar buzz isn’t a priority. As TheWrap’s awards editor Steve Pond has written, the Chloé Zhao drama has been the one surefire contender on this yr’s Oscar race at a time when awards campaigners for different movies have been pressured to get artistic to earn…