This question originally appeared on Quora.

 What Will The Hunger Games Opening Weekend Gross Be?
By John Dick, CEO, CivicScience

~$ 113.75M

Why / How?

Relying on our digital polling applications at CivicScience, we’ve done pretty well this Spring in our predictions for both The Lorax & John Carter.  


We’re still pretty convinced that we were lucky in projecting the opening weekend John Carter movie sales. We don’t know how external things, like the weather, other competing movies, and overall demographic targets can impact box office receipts. But we’re learning and we can continue to refine our models as we get further into it.

For now, we have tons of data on the upcoming Hunger Games release and we’re happy to share our current (if amateur-ish) insights. First, we can look at the overall sample of responses we collected from late February until now.

Based on 9,528 respondents, weighted to the US Census, we see that 24% of respondents plan to see the movie in theaters, with 10% expecting to go this weekend.

2012 03 23 mainqimg7ebc33282d109417b513a074143c3414 What Will The Hunger Games Opening Weekend Gross Be?

But these numbers only tell part of the story. If we look at only the first three weeks of data collected, we see that earlier respondents were slighly less inclined (N=7,770).

2012 03 23 mainqimg05d0b217ae181fa620f50d493bb57361 What Will The Hunger Games Opening Weekend Gross Be?

But then let’s look at people we reached in the past week. It would appear that the final marketing push around the film has significantly moved the numbers of people who plan to see Hunger Games in theaters “eventually.” (N=1,764)

2012 03 23 mainqimgb58ba554a0456566e485aea162c7f0edd What Will The Hunger Games Opening Weekend Gross Be?

OK. So if our past formula was any indication, viewing these numbers relative to the Lorax and John Carter movie numbers, then the Hunger Games should do about $ 113.75M at the box office this weekend. That would put it among the top 15 highest-grossing opening weekends ever. We’ll see how close we are OR we’ll see how much more work we have to do on our models. Stay tuned.

A version of this post originally appeared at http://about.civicscience .com/bl…. Check in for updates.

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